Belarus’ foreign policy
The domestic agenda remains focused on the upcoming election campaigns, while the government approach is growing tougher. In its foreign policy, Belarus bets on diversification and finds common ground with long-standing opponents.
Part six in the series ‘Russian Media: Moscow and Beyond Calling’: Russia’s information influence on Belarus
Last month saw the launch of campaigns for MPs in both chambers of Belarusian parliament, and the country’s continued active interaction with its partners in the international arena.
Analysis by Yuri Tsarik and László Vasa
Yuri Tsarik on the Kremlin’s strategy for “deepening integration” with Belarus
Parliamentary elections are finally scheduled in Belarus.
Following predictions by Russian military intelligence (GRU) that the West wants to separate Belarus from Russia and incorporate it into the Western orbit...
Yury Tsarik considers how and why Belarusian-Russian relations have hit a new low
March saw a shift of accents in the work of the government and media in Belarus. Excessive attention to tensions in Belarus-Russia relations in January-February was replaced by an emphasis on domestic and economic policies. However, these accents turned out to be mostly negatively colored as well.
In February 2019, Belarusian leadership paid increased attention to the issues of information security.
Belarus’s ongoing drive to cautiously normalize relations with the West has raised concerns from Russian military intelligence...
Arseny Sivitsky, Director of the Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies, participated in the “Big Conversation with the President” of Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko — meeting with representatives of general public, expert community, Belarusian and foreign mass media.
Yuri Tsarik contends that relations between Russia and Belarus may have reached an “integration impasse,” but there were at least a few constructive results from February’s bilateral talks in Sochi.
The Kremlin’s concerns about maintaining Belarus within its geopolitical sphere of influence have been mounting as of late
Belarus further tightens control over its domestic political field. Without Russia’s support, the outlook for its economy is gloomy. Meanwhile, the standoff with Moscow switches from open to positional.
Four sacks of potatoes and a piece of lard were the Christmas gifts president Lukashenko brought for his meeting with Putin on December 29.
In December, the tensions of the past years in relations between Russia and Belarus entered a new stage growing into an open conflict. The Kremlin openly declared its ambitions of integrating Belarus. It conditioned discounts for oil and gas on deeper integration between Russia and Belarus within the Union State.
Despite recent concerns from some security analysts that a new Military Doctrine of the Union State of Russia and Belarus will include provisions for the establishment of a Russian military base on Belarusian soil...
Parliamentary and presidential election campaigns are about to start in Belarus, so the authorities continue to “tighten the screws” in the domestic political field and bank on new appointments to the key positions.
Four key scenarios for the further development of bilateral relations
The entire country is gradually focusing on the upcoming presidential election. The entire government and bureaucracy, the 2019 budget, and even international relations are all being used to polish up Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s image.
Numerous trade, financial and information conflicts between longtime allies Belarus and Russia came to what seems to be a very smooth resolution at bilateral summit on 12 October 2018
Within the given period the relations between Belarus and Russia have become a source of mostly negative news.
Visitors to Minsk National Airport, the main air-hub in Belarus, might be surprised to hear public announcements in Chinese echoing through the arrivals hall.
The trade wars with Russia and the Moscow’s desire to limit the use of the European raw materials which are “under sanctions” can cost Belarus not only profits but also the trust of the Western partners.
Russian actions toward Belarus since 2015 show that Moscow is no longer pursuing the “union deal” it had established with Minsk earlier and instead has placed its bets on the forced integration of its western neighbor into a Russian-dominated state, according to Arseny Sivitsky
Belarus authorities began preparations for the presidential and parliamentary elections and tried to ease the protest mood with the financial methods. In foreign policy, the trend of balancing between Russian, European, and Chinese directions is still preserved.
The Republic of Belarus has been a full-fledged member of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) since 30 January 1992
Arseny Sivitski, Director of Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies contributed to the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index 2018 “Democracy under Pressure: Polarization and Repression Are Increasing Worldwide”.